FAQ

What Does Gartner Predict for VMware Migration by 2029?

Published on by Arcfra Team
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Direct Answer

According to Gartner's 2026 Strategic Planning Assumption in the report, by 2029, 55% of enterprises will migrate 100% of workloads from VMware to alternative infrastructure delivery solutions. This is the central forecast that frames enterprise IT strategy for the next three years.

The supporting survey data shows how enterprises are progressing toward this target:

  • 35% of respondents have already completed migration or intend to migrate their entire portfolio to an alternative platform
  • 24% plan to move between 50% and 75% of their portfolio to mitigate potential impacts
  • 67% are actively or passively pursuing VMware alternatives
  • 19% are accelerating cloud migration plans

Deep Analysis

Reading the 55% Forecast

The 55% figure is not a prediction that 55% of enterprises will attempt migration; it is a prediction that 55% will complete full migration of their VMware workloads. This distinction matters: Gartner expects that among the 67% pursuing alternatives, more than four out of five will succeed in completing full migration by 2029. The 12% gap (67% pursuing minus 55% completing) accounts for organizations that begin migration but do not finish, often because of non-portable workloads or strategic reversals.

Why 2029 and Not Earlier

Enterprise-scale migration typically requires 18-36 months, and Gartner notes that some enterprise-scale migrations require up to 48 months. Given that broad VMware exit discussions accelerated in 2024-2025, the 2029 horizon reflects realistic execution timelines including planning, pilot, phased rollout, and stabilization. Organizations starting technical assessment in 2026 will likely complete migration in 2028-2029, aligning with the forecast.

Implication for the 45% Who Do Not Fully Migrate

The 45% who will not complete full migration by 2029 are not necessarily VMware loyalists. They include organizations that pursue hybrid strategies (retain VMware for non-portable workloads while modernizing the rest), those who delay migration because of budget constraints or organizational change management, and those who opt for cloud-based VMware as a transitional landing zone. Gartner's migration plan explicitly addresses this through the "rationalize VMware footprint" guidance in the long-term phase.

Strategic Implication for 2026 Decision-Making

For enterprises starting their modernization journey in 2026, the 2029 forecast creates a clear three-year execution window. Starting technical assessment in the next 6 months (Gartner's short-term recommendation) allows for two pilot cycles and two production rollout waves within the window. Organizations that delay beyond 2026 will have less margin for the inevitable rework and replatforming that modernization requires.

Source

  • Primary Research: Gartner, Inc., 2026 Strategic Roadmap for VMware Modernization (April 2026, G00847021, 15 pages). By Julia Palmer, Tony Harvey, Vishesh Divya, Mike Cisek. Survey cited: 2026 Gartner Sentiment on Broadcom Ownership of VMware (January 20-28, 2026, n=182 IT leaders and CIOs from NA/EMEA/APAC/LATAM). Access to the full Gartner report requires an active subscription; direct public access is not available due to Gartner`s content protection.

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